A fuzzy Bayesian belief network for safety assessment of oil and gas pipelines

Safety assessment of oil and gas (O&G) pipelines is necessary to prevent unwanted events that may cause catastrophic accidents and heavy financial losses. This study develops a safety assessment model for O&G pipeline failure by incorporating fuzzy logic into Bayesian belief network. Proposed fuzzy Bayesian belief network (FBBN) model explicitly represents dependencies of events, updating probabilities and representation of uncertain knowledge (such as randomness, vagueness and ignorance). The study highlights the utility of FBBN in safety analysis of O&G pipeline because of its flexible structure, allowing it to fit a wide variety of accident scenarios. The sensitivity analysis of the proposed model indicates that construction defect, overload, mechanical damage, bad installation and quality of worker are the most significant causes for the O&G pipeline failures. The research results can help owners of transmission and distribution pipeline companies and professionals to prepare preventive safety measures and allocate proper resources.     

Multilayer Multidi mensional Extension Set Theory

In order to study the rules and methods of con-tradiction problem-solving, a pri mary theory systemthat is called extensiontheoryis established[1 ,2],anda matter element dynamic systemtheoryisfurther es-tablished[3 -6]. Matter element theory and extension…     

Decentralized bounded input bounded output stabilization of perturbed interconnected time-delay power systems with energy storages

This paper presents a new decentralized bounded input bounded output (BIBO) stabilization problem for a class of interconnected time-delay systems and its application to power systems with energy storages. We first provide conditions for the derivation of an ellipsoid that bounds a given linear functions of the state vector. Then, a design procedure is proposed to synthesize decentralized static output feedback controllers. The designed controllers guarantee that a given linear functions of the state vector, starting from any initial condition, converges exponentially to its prescribed zones. To deal with the time-delay issue, we use an improved weighted integral inequality recently reported in the literature to derive less conservative exponential stability conditions. Then, our presented control approach is applied to an interconnected power system integrated energy storages with multiple time delays. We synthesis decentralized static output feedback load frequency controllers to guarantee that the system frequency and interchanged power converge to their prescribed zones exponentially from any initial conditions. The controller’s construction is simpler and easier for implementation due to only the local output measurements are required. In order to systematically obtain the controller gains, an effective procedure using linear matrix inequality based stabilisation criteria, which can be solved by various computation tools, is provided. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme is verified by comprehensive simulations.     

考虑有限理性的电力系统连锁故障多阶段动态博弈防御模型

为了防御由连锁故障引发的大停电事故,提出一种考虑参与人有限理性的连锁故障多阶段动态博弈防御模型。基于故障方的有限理性假设和故障方行动的关联性假设,综合考虑元件自身故障、外界环境、潮流转移和隐性故障等因素对元件停运概率的影响,提出基于实时运行条件的元件停运概率表征有限理性的故障方不完美的选择能力;根据可掌握的事故状态信息,提出潮流转移严重度和系统失负荷严重度表征故障方追求自身利益的意识;基于风险分析方法,生成故障方的策略集合。从风险理论的角度出发,将运行风险作为收益函数,用于定量评估防御方行动的有效性。以IEEE 39节点系统为例,验证了所提模型的合理性。     

基于集对分析—灰色关联理论 的采空区处理多属性方案综合评价

针对采空区处理方案中存在的多属性、不确定性等问题,构建了采空区处理多属性方案综合评价系统。基于集对分析理论,运用了对立统一的辨证观点,将确定性与不确定性因素相结合,分别建立评价集与指标集两集合的集对;利用灰色关联理论,分别对其差异度与同一度、差异度与对立度之间的关联度进行量化分析。通过实例分析,确定了采空区处理方案的等级;采用变异系数法确定评价指标的权重,选择最优方案。研究结果表明,该评价方法客观、全面、合理,可以在工程领域中应用并推广。     

基于STT与粗糙集的装甲装备使用阶段质量评价研究

构建了装甲装备使用阶段质量评价指标体系,运用从战略到任务方法(Strategy to Task Technique, STT)分解了装甲装备使用阶段的任务,建立了任务与使用阶段质量的有机联系。采用AHP法确定了各层任务的权重,运用粗糙集理论进行了评价指标的属性约简和权重确定,通过权重聚合及评价值计算对装甲装备使用阶段质量进行了评价,并对评价结果进行了合理分析。     

格子Boltzmann方法研究岩石粗糙裂隙渗流特性

为研究岩石粗糙裂隙水力特性,建立了基于格子Boltzmann的压力模型。通过对3组不同试件（平板光滑裂隙、矩形非吻合裂隙、随机隙宽裂隙）的模拟,拟合出流量与平均隙宽的关系。研究结果表明,在所计算的10种工况中,3组裂隙中的水流都接近于层流。只有平行光滑裂隙中的水流的流量与平均隙宽近似成立方关系,矩形非吻合裂隙和随机隙宽裂隙中的流量与平均隙宽呈现超立方关系。改变平均隙宽和进出口压力都会导致流量与平均隙宽的关系变化。同时,进出口压力的改变也会造成两者之间产生次立方关系。     

基于节点集合的PMU优化配置方法

同步相量测量单元(PMU)的最优配置要求在全局可观的前提下所配置的PMU最少。0-1线性整数规划在分析求解多目标PMU最优配置有极大的优势。在实际电力系统中存在一定数量的零注入节点。作为虚拟测量数据,虽然有利于PMU最优配置,然而引入到整数规划进行计算时,将使模型非线性化而难以求解。给出了考虑零注入功率节点情况下的条件函数,该函数能够有效保持函数的线性性从而仍能适用于0-1整数规划。当考虑N-1情况下的PMU最优布点时,该方法具有很强的继承能力,有效解决了传统方法无法解决的N-1优化配置问题。最后将该方法应用于IEEE14节点以及IEEE39节点的算例,相对于其他配置方法,减少了PMU配置数量,从而体现了该方法的优越性。     

基于支持向量机综合分类模型和关键样本集的电力系统暂态稳定评估

为了提高支持向量机(Support Vector Machine, SVM)的分类性能,提出了根据关键样本集构造的SVM综合分类模型进行电力系统暂态稳定评估的方法。给出了基于不同特征量的SVM综合分类模型的构建方法、关键样本集的产生方法以及基于综合分类模型和关键样本集的SVM分类步骤。采用3机9节点典型算例和某省级电网算例进行分类效果分析。分析结果表明,所提出的基于SVM综合分类模型和关键样本集的方法,相较于传统SVM方法,大幅度减少了将不稳定样本判定为稳定的漏分类数,提高了SVM方法的实用性。所提出的基于关键样本集构造分类模型的思路对于其他数据挖掘方法也有一定的借鉴意义。     

Alpha-stable分布粗糙土壤表面电磁散射研究

采用空间域合成法生成高度起伏遵守Alpha-stable分布的粗糙土壤表面,运用矩量法研究了锥形入射波入射时粗糙土壤表面的电磁散射特性.数值计算了散射系数随散射角的变化关系,分析了稳定性系数、归一化尺度参数、互相关长度、入射波频率、土壤湿度对散射系数的影响.结果表明,稳定性系数、归一化尺度参数、互相关长度、入射波频率、土壤湿度对散射系数均有较大的影响,遵守不同的规律.